Response rate up down why this happened?

[hanshuber16]

I’m terrible at math, but I appreciate your help.

It’s Ok, let me see if I can explain it easier.

Looking at the graph below, and knowing that analytics are always changing, can we deduce that when the highlighted cancellation from Nov 29 goes away, my order completion rate will increase by 1%?

That is my hope, When I count the cancellations, I only see 8. Of course, the gray sometimes includes more than one cancellation, there are days I had 2 cancellations/refunds.

First of all, there are 3 things we all must understand:

• Regaining any percentage point is way harder than losing it and, depending on the amount of points you lost in a given period, you will need to complete double, same, half, etc. the amount of total orders you have in that same period, without having anymore cancellation.

• Cancellation is volume-based meaning it weighs less the higher the amount of orders is - it’s not the same 2 cancellations over 10 orders (20%) than 2 cancellations over 40 (5%).

• The higher the total amount of orders in a given period, the harder it will be to bring up the order completion rate once it’s hit. In other words, you’ll need a lot of completed orders and no cancellations to regain the lost points.

That being said, it’s not needed to go back until forever nor keep tracking when cancellations won’t be taken anymore into account, it’s just needed a specific period of time and that would be from the evaluation date of 2 months ago to present.

So, although rough, the fastest and easiest way to estimate how many orders you will be needing to complete so to step back to your desired order completion rate is as follows:

1. Position yourself back to 60 + 1 days (time difference that needs to be taken into account) before the next evaluation day - say ED is Jan 14, you’ll have to step yourself on Nov 13.

2. In that time period - Nov 13 to date (both included) - see what’s your Order Completion Rate (Completed Orders/Total Amount of Orders) - eg. 48/56 = 85.7%.

3. To regain 20 percentage points, it will be needed double the amount of total orders there is in that given period. To regain 10 percentage points, it will be needed the same amount of total orders there is in that given period. To regain 5 percentage points, it will be needed half the amount of total orders there is in that given period, and so on - in the example above, it will be needed half of the total amount of orders (28) as only 4.3 percentage points are required to go back to 90% OCR (90 - 85.7 = 4.3).

4. Depending on how far you are from ED, add 20% - 25% to the number of complete orders you will be needing (eg. If you were to need to complete 15 new orders and 10 to 15 days away from ED, then add 3 or 4 more). This will give you a mattress to compensate for possible further cancellations until ED but, as cancellations are random, you may play with this percentage as you wish.

I’ll try my best to illustrate all the above with examples on how cancellations impact OCR and the amount of new completed orders needed for regainig different percentage points to level up OCR to 90%.

Let’s say we’re estimating for next evaluation day on Jan 14. So, from today, Dec 29, we look back to Nov 13 (1 day before last ED) and see the total amount of orders and complete orders we have in that period:

Case 1: Regaining 20 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 10

Cancellations: 3

Completed Orders: 7

70% OCR

Double amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 24 or 25 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

7 + x = 0.9*10 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x = 9 - 7

0.1x = 2

x = 20

This is double amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 20 => x = 24. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 20 => x = 25.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Case 2: Regaining 10 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 65

Cancellations: 13

Completed Orders: 52

80% OCR

Same amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 78 to 82 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

52 + x=0.9*65 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x=58.5 - 52

0.1x = 6.5

x = 65

This is the same amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 65 => x = 78. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 65 => x = 81.25.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Case 3: Regaining 5 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 120

Cancellations: 18

Completed Orders: 102

85% OCR

Half the amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 72 or 75 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

102 + x = 0.9*120 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x = 108 - 102

0.1x = 6

x = 60

This is half the amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 60 => x = 72. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 60 => x = 75.

Hope this helps and also don’t discourage you or anyone - it’s tough, very tough…

😮

[maitasun]

😮

Thanks AJ, I only hope I was able to explain in a clear way. I’m not good at content writing, specially in English 😰

[fonthaunt]

Thanks AJ, I only hope I was able to explain in a clear way. I’m not good at content writing, specially in English 😰

I’m not good at content writing, specially in English

That is not what I call “not good at”! 😃 Great job! There are a few people with actual writing gigs who ask for help on the forum and it can be a struggle to politely explain what “not good” means.

[maitasun]

I’m not good at content writing, specially in English

That is not what I call “not good at”! 😃 Great job! There are a few people with actual writing gigs who ask for help on the forum and it can be a struggle to politely explain what “not good” means.

Thank you very much! Specially coming from you, a writer. I really appreciate it 😊

[radiojay]

I’m terrible at math, but I appreciate your help.

It’s Ok, let me see if I can explain it easier.

Looking at the graph below, and knowing that analytics are always changing, can we deduce that when the highlighted cancellation from Nov 29 goes away, my order completion rate will increase by 1%?

That is my hope, When I count the cancellations, I only see 8. Of course, the gray sometimes includes more than one cancellation, there are days I had 2 cancellations/refunds.

First of all, there are 3 things we all must understand:

• Regaining any percentage point is way harder than losing it and, depending on the amount of points you lost in a given period, you will need to complete double, same, half, etc. the amount of total orders you have in that same period, without having anymore cancellation.

• Cancellation is volume-based meaning it weighs less the higher the amount of orders is - it’s not the same 2 cancellations over 10 orders (20%) than 2 cancellations over 40 (5%).

• The higher the total amount of orders in a given period, the harder it will be to bring up the order completion rate once it’s hit. In other words, you’ll need a lot of completed orders and no cancellations to regain the lost points.

That being said, it’s not needed to go back until forever nor keep tracking when cancellations won’t be taken anymore into account, it’s just needed a specific period of time and that would be from the evaluation date of 2 months ago to present.

So, although rough, the fastest and easiest way to estimate how many orders you will be needing to complete so to step back to your desired order completion rate is as follows:

1. Position yourself back to 60 + 1 days (time difference that needs to be taken into account) before the next evaluation day - say ED is Jan 14, you’ll have to step yourself on Nov 13.

2. In that time period - Nov 13 to date (both included) - see what’s your Order Completion Rate (Completed Orders/Total Amount of Orders) - eg. 48/56 = 85.7%.

3. To regain 20 percentage points, it will be needed double the amount of total orders there is in that given period. To regain 10 percentage points, it will be needed the same amount of total orders there is in that given period. To regain 5 percentage points, it will be needed half the amount of total orders there is in that given period, and so on - in the example above, it will be needed half of the total amount of orders (28) as only 4.3 percentage points are required to go back to 90% OCR (90 - 85.7 = 4.3).

4. Depending on how far you are from ED, add 20% - 25% to the number of complete orders you will be needing (eg. If you were to need to complete 15 new orders and 10 to 15 days away from ED, then add 3 or 4 more). This will give you a mattress to compensate for possible further cancellations until ED but, as cancellations are random, you may play with this percentage as you wish.

I’ll try my best to illustrate all the above with examples on how cancellations impact OCR and the amount of new completed orders needed for regainig different percentage points to level up OCR to 90%.

Let’s say we’re estimating for next evaluation day on Jan 14. So, from today, Dec 29, we look back to Nov 13 (1 day before last ED) and see the total amount of orders and complete orders we have in that period:

Case 1: Regaining 20 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 10

Cancellations: 3

Completed Orders: 7

70% OCR

Double amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 24 or 25 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

7 + x = 0.9*10 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x = 9 - 7

0.1x = 2

x = 20

This is double amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 20 => x = 24. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 20 => x = 25.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Case 2: Regaining 10 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 65

Cancellations: 13

Completed Orders: 52

80% OCR

Same amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 78 to 82 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

52 + x=0.9*65 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x=58.5 - 52

0.1x = 6.5

x = 65

This is the same amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 65 => x = 78. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 65 => x = 81.25.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Case 3: Regaining 5 percentage points to go back to 90%

Total Amount of Orders: 120

Cancellations: 18

Completed Orders: 102

85% OCR

Half the amount of total orders and no cancellations, plus 20% or 25% until the 14th of Jan, to bring up OCR to 90%.

It will be needed 72 or 75 completed orders and 0 cancellations.

Demonstration:

102 + x = 0.9*120 + 0.9x

(1-0.9)x = 108 - 102

0.1x = 6

x = 60

This is half the amount of total orders you have in the period but still need to compensate for 16 more days until ED so, let’s say we add 20%. Therefore, 1.2 * 60 => x = 72. If we add 25% then, 1.25 * 60 => x = 75.

Hope this helps and also don’t discourage you or anyone - it’s tough, very tough…

You might want to create a ‘content writing’ gig!

[maitasun]

You might want to create a ‘content writing’ gig!

You might want to create a ‘content writing’ gig!

Hi @radiojay,

Thanks for your encouragement 🙂 but I’m afraid I must pass on your kind suggestion. :frowning_face:

It’s not that I don’t like writing but everybody should know their talents and limitations. I don’t belong to the world of letters and writing, as business, is a serious matter. Maybe someday, just maybe and very far into the future, I could think of giving it a try. 😉

[radiojay]

You might want to create a ‘content writing’ gig!

Hi @radiojay,

Thanks for your encouragement 🙂 but I’m afraid I must pass on your kind suggestion. :frowning_face:

It’s not that I don’t like writing but everybody should know their talents and limitations. I don’t belong to the world of letters and writing, as business, is a serious matter. Maybe someday, just maybe and very far into the future, I could think of giving it a try. 😉

Well perhaps not for business then. But you could write for pleasure. Authors of books, social media etc. You’re voice comes thru cleanly and not stiff at all.

Perhaps try writing or ghost writing for someone. You may enjoy it, then find a way to make $ with it!

[melissaharlowvo]

Funny, my response rate has stayed at 98% even though I answer every message and order.

My Order Completion Rate has taken forever to rise from 84% to 86%, but if I refund just one order, I will lose 1%.

It’s getting to the point where I’m starting not to care.

Exactly! It’s sort of like the stock market it goes up and down and up and down but over the long haul if you do good business you will be rewarded for it. I actually started not looking at that as well. I also stopped watching the national news for a little while and that helped too. Why make yourself crazy? Just do a good job and buyers will come to you.